Factors associated with mortality in critically ill patients with COVID-19 / Fatores associados à mortalidade em pacientes críticos com COVID-19 / Factores asociados a la mortalidad en pacientes críticos con COVID-19

Background and objectives: COVID-19 is a life-threatening disease. Recognizing the main characteristics of the disease and its main complications will help future interventions, care, and management of health services since territorial and population diversities directly influence health outcomes. Our main objective is to describe the clinical characteristics, outcomes, and factors associated with mortality of patients with COVID-19 admitted to the intensive care unit of a public and tertiary hospital. Methods: Cohort study, conducted from March 1 to September 30, 2020. Poisson regression was performed to investigate the variables of hospital treatment as potential risk factors for in-hospital mortality. Results: Of the 283 eligible patients in this study, the hospital mortality rate was of 41.7% (n=118). The most common outcomes were acute respiratory distress syndrome, nosocomial infection, and septic shock. Factors independently associated with increased risk of death were age greater than 51 years old (RR=1.7, 95%CI=1.0-2.8), especially over 70 years old (RR=2.9, 95%CI=1.7-2.8), current smoker (RR=1.8, 95%CI=1.1-2.9), requiring the use of inotrope (RR=1.4, 95%CI=1.0-2.0), and presenting potassium greater than 5.0 mEq/l on admission (RR=1.3, 95%CI=1.0-1.7). Conclusion: Mortality was associated with older age, being a current smoker, inotrope use, and presenting potassium greater than 5.0 on hospital admission.(AU)

Justificativa e objetivos: A COVID-19 é uma doença ameaçadora à vida. Reconhecer as características da doença e suas principais complicações nesta população auxiliará em futuras intervenções, cuidados e gestão dos serviços de saúde, uma vez que a diversidade territorial e populacional influencia diretamente nos resultados de saúde. O objetivo principal do presente estudo é descrever as características clínicas, desfechos e fatores associados à mortalidade de pacientes com COVID-19 internados na unidade de terapia intensiva de um hospital público e terciário. Métodos: Estudo de coorte, realizado de 1º de março a 30 de setembro de 2020. Foi realizada regressão de Poisson para investigar variáveis de apresentação hospitalar como potenciais fatores de risco para mortalidade intra-hospitalar. Resultados: Dos 283 pacientes elegíveis neste estudo, o dado de mortalidade hospitalar foi de 41,7% (n=118). Os desfechos mais comuns foram síndrome do desconforto respiratório agudo, infecção hospitalar e choque séptico. Os fatores independentemente associados ao aumento do risco de morte foram idade superior a 51 anos (RR=1,7, IC 95%=1,0-2,8), principalmente acima de 70 anos (RR=2,9, IC 95%=1,7-2,8), tabagismo atual (RR=1,8, IC 95%=1,1-2,9), necessidade de inotrópico (RR=1,4, IC 95%=1,0-2,0) e potássio maior que 5,0 mEq/l (RR=1,3, IC 95%=1,0- 1.7) na admissão. Conclusão: A mortalidade esteve associada à idade avançada, tabagismo atual, uso de inotrópicos e potássio maior que 5,0 na admissão hospitalar.(AU)

Justificación y objetivos: La COVID-19 es una enfermedad potencialmente mortal. Reconocer las características de la enfermedad y sus principales complicaciones en esta población ayudará a futuras intervenciones, atención y gestión de los servicios de salud, ya que las diversidades territoriales y poblacionales influyen directamente en los resultados de salud. El objetivo principal de este estudio es describir las características clínicas, los resultados y los factores asociados a la mortalidad de los pacientes con COVID-19 ingresados en la unidad de cuidados intensivos de un hospital público y de tercer nivel. Métodos: Estudio de cohorte, realizado del 1 de marzo al 30 de septiembre de 2020. Se realizó regresión de Poisson para investigar variables en la presentación hospitalaria como potenciales factores de riesgo para la mortalidad intrahospitalaria. Resultados: De los 283 pacientes elegibles en este estudio, el 41,7% (n=118) tuvo mortalidad hospitalaria. Los desenlaces más comunes fueron síndrome de dificultad respiratoria aguda, infección nosocomial y shock séptico. Los factores independientemente asociados a mayor riesgo de muerte fueron edad mayor de 51 años (RR=1,7, IC95%=1,0-2,8), especialmente mayores de 70 años (RR=2,9, IC95%=1,7-2,8), tabaquismo actual (RR=1,8, IC95%=1,1-2,9), necesidad de inotrópico (RR=1,4, IC95%=1,0-2,0) y potasio mayor que 5,0 mEq/l (RR=1,3, IC95%=1,0-1,7). Conclusión: La mortalidad estuvo asociada a la edad avanzada, tabaquismo actual, uso de inotrópico y potasio mayor a 5,0 en la admisión hospitalaria.(AU)

Mechanical ventilation and death in pregnant patients admitted for COVID-19: a prognostic analysis from the Brazilian COVID-19 registry score.

BACKGROUND: The assessment of clinical prognosis of pregnant COVID-19 patients at hospital presentation is challenging, due to physiological adaptations during pregnancy. Our aim was to assess the performance of the ABC2-SPH score to predict in-hospital mortality and mechanical ventilation support in pregnant patients with COVID-19, to assess the frequency of adverse pregnancy outcomes, and characteristics of pregnant women who died. METHODS: This multicenter cohort included consecutive pregnant patients with COVID-19 admitted to the participating hospitals, from April/2020 to March/2022. Primary outcomes were in-hospital mortality and the composite outcome of mechanical ventilation support and in-hospital mortality. Secondary endpoints were pregnancy outcomes. The overall discrimination of the model was presented as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Overall performance was assessed using the Brier score. RESULTS: From 350 pregnant patients (median age 30 [interquartile range (25.2, 35.0)] years-old]), 11.1% had hypertensive disorders, 19.7% required mechanical ventilation support and 6.0% died. The AUROC for in-hospital mortality and for the composite outcome were 0.809 (95% IC: 0.641-0.944) and 0.704 (95% IC: 0.617-0.792), respectively, with good overall performance (Brier = 0.0384 and 0.1610, respectively). Calibration was good for the prediction of in-hospital mortality, but poor for the composite outcome. Women who died had a median age 4 years-old higher, higher frequency of hypertensive disorders (38.1% vs. 9.4%, p < 0.001) and obesity (28.6% vs. 10.6%, p = 0.025) than those who were discharged alive, and their newborns had lower birth weight (2000 vs. 2813, p = 0.001) and five-minute Apgar score (3.0 vs. 8.0, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The ABC2-SPH score had good overall performance for in-hospital mortality and the composite outcome mechanical ventilation and in-hospital mortality. Calibration was good for the prediction of in-hospital mortality, but it was poor for the composite outcome. Therefore, the score may be useful to predict in-hospital mortality in pregnant patients with COVID-19, in addition to clinical judgment. Newborns from women who died had lower birth weight and Apgar score than those who were discharged alive.

Cohort study protocol of the Brazilian collaborative research network on COVID-19: strengthening WHO global data.

INTRODUCTION: With the COVID-19 pandemic, hospitals in low-income countries were faced with a triple challenge. First, a large number of patients required hospitalisation because of the infection's more severe symptoms. Second, there was a lack of systematic and broad testing policies for early identification of cases. Third, there were weaknesses in the integration of information systems, which led to the need to search for available information from the hospital information systems. Accordingly, it is also important to state that relevant aspects of COVID-19's natural history had not yet been fully clarified. The aim of this research protocol is to present the strategies of a Brazilian network of hospitals to perform systematised data collection on COVID-19 through the WHO platform. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This is a multicentre project among Brazilian hospitals to provide data on COVID-19 through the WHO global platform, which integrates patient care information from different countries. From October 2020 to March 2021, a committee worked on defining a flowchart for this platform, specifying the variables of interest, data extraction standardisation and analysis. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This protocol was approved by the Research Ethics Committee (CEP) of the Research Coordinating Center of Brazil (CEP of the Hospital Nossa Senhora da Conceicao), on 29 January 2021, under approval No. 4.515.519 and by the National Research Ethics Commission (CONEP), on 5 February 2021, under approval No. 4.526.456. The project results will be explained in WHO reports and published in international peer-reviewed journals, and summaries will be provided to the funders of the study.

Development and validation of the MMCD score to predict kidney replacement therapy in COVID-19 patients.

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is frequently associated with COVID-19, and the need for kidney replacement therapy (KRT) is considered an indicator of disease severity. This study aimed to develop a prognostic score for predicting the need for KRT in hospitalised COVID-19 patients, and to assess the incidence of AKI and KRT requirement. METHODS: This study is part of a multicentre cohort, the Brazilian COVID-19 Registry. A total of 5212 adult COVID-19 patients were included between March/2020 and September/2020. Variable selection was performed using generalised additive models (GAM), and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was used for score derivation. Accuracy was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). RESULTS: The median age of the model-derivation cohort was 59 (IQR 47-70) years, 54.5% were men, 34.3% required ICU admission, 20.9% evolved with AKI, 9.3% required KRT, and 15.1% died during hospitalisation. The temporal validation cohort had similar age, sex, ICU admission, AKI, required KRT distribution and in-hospital mortality. The geographic validation cohort had similar age and sex; however, this cohort had higher rates of ICU admission, AKI, need for KRT and in-hospital mortality. Four predictors of the need for KRT were identified using GAM: need for mechanical ventilation, male sex, higher creatinine at hospital presentation and diabetes. The MMCD score had excellent discrimination in derivation (AUROC 0.929, 95% CI 0.918-0.939) and validation (temporal AUROC 0.927, 95% CI 0.911-0.941; geographic AUROC 0.819, 95% CI 0.792-0.845) cohorts and good overall performance (Brier score: 0.057, 0.056 and 0.122, respectively). The score is implemented in a freely available online risk calculator ( https://www.mmcdscore.com/ ). CONCLUSIONS: The use of the MMCD score to predict the need for KRT may assist healthcare workers in identifying hospitalised COVID-19 patients who may require more intensive monitoring, and can be useful for resource allocation.

Predictors of venous thromboembolism in COVID-19 patients: results of the COVID-19 Brazilian Registry.

Previous studies that assessed risk factors for venous thromboembolism (VTE) in COVID-19 patients have shown inconsistent results. Our aim was to investigate VTE predictors by both logistic regression (LR) and machine learning (ML) approaches, due to their potential complementarity. This cohort study of a large Brazilian COVID-19 Registry included 4120 COVID-19 adult patients from 16 hospitals. Symptomatic VTE was confirmed by objective imaging. LR analysis, tree-based boosting, and bagging were used to investigate the association of variables upon hospital presentation with VTE. Among 4,120 patients (55.5% men, 39.3% critical patients), VTE was confirmed in 6.7%. In multivariate LR analysis, obesity (OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.11-2.02); being an ex-smoker (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.03-2.01); surgery ≤ 90 days (OR 2.20, 95% CI 1.14-4.23); axillary temperature (OR 1.41, 95% CI 1.22-1.63); D-dimer ≥ 4 times above the upper limit of reference value (OR 2.16, 95% CI 1.26-3.67), lactate (OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.02-1.19), C-reactive protein levels (CRP, OR 1.09, 95% CI 1.01-1.18); and neutrophil count (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.005-1.075) were independent predictors of VTE. Atrial fibrillation, peripheral oxygen saturation/inspired oxygen fraction (SF) ratio and prophylactic use of anticoagulants were protective. Temperature at admission, SF ratio, neutrophil count, D-dimer, CRP and lactate levels were also identified as predictors by ML methods. By using ML and LR analyses, we showed that D-dimer, axillary temperature, neutrophil count, CRP and lactate levels are risk factors for VTE in COVID-19 patients.

Adult patients admitted to a tertiary hospital for COVID-19 and risk factors associated with severity: a retrospective cohort study.

COVID-19 is a disease whose knowledge is still under construction, high transmissibility, with no consensual treatment available to everyone. Therefore, the identification of patients at higher risk of evolving to the critical form of the disease is fundamental. The study aimed to determine risk factors associated with the severity of COVID-19 in adults patients. This is an observational, retrospective study from a cohort of adult patients with COVID-19 admitted to a public hospital from March to August 2020, whose medical records were evaluated. For the association of possible severity predictors, a Poisson regression was used. The primary outcome was the critical form of the disease (need for admission to the Intensive Care Unit and/or invasive mechanical ventilation). We included 565 patients: mostly men; 55.5% of those who progressed to the critical form of the disease were over sixty years old. Hypertension, diabetes mellitus and obesity were the most frequent comorbidities. There were 39.8% of patients who progressed to the critical form of the disease. The hospital mortality rate was 22.1%, and that of critical patients was 46.7%. The independent factors associated with the severity of the disease were obesity [RR = 1.33 (95% CI 1.07 to 1.66; p = 0.011)], SpO2/FiO2 ratio ≤ 315 [RR = 2.20 (95% CI 1.79 to 2.71; p = 0.000)], C-reactive protein > 100 mg/L [RR = 1.65 (95% CI 1.33 to 2.06; p = 0.000)], and lymphocytes < 1,000/µL [RR = 1.44 (95% CI 1.18 to 1.75; p = 0.000)]. Advanced age and comorbidities were dependent factors strongly associated with the critical form of the disease.